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Weekly Insights: New highs after the Fed calms markets

After moving sideways for most of the last two months, the S&P 500 had its best week since February, reaching a new all-time high, suggesting that the market’s anxiety regarding the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt earlier this month has eased. Similarly, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index recorded new all-time highs.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress on Tuesday, in which he restated policymakers’ belief that the recent spike in inflation will prove temporary, seemed to reassure investors with the U.S. Dollar giving back some ground this week, whilst commodity prices bounced off recent lows.

Weekly economic data may have also helped calm fears about economic overheating and inflation with U.S. data showing a healthy expansion, albeit below market expectations. Initial jobless claims eased to 411,000, lower than the market’s expectation of a drop to 380,000.

President Joe Biden announced on Thursday that a bipartisan group of 10 Senators had agreed on a plan for USD 973 billion in infrastructure spending over the next five years. The bill has however yet to be drafted, with many expecting it to face resistance from both ends of the political spectrum.

U.S. banks are set to announce a deluge of dividend increases and stock buybacks after the industry passed the Fed’s stress test. Lenders can announce their plans for distributing capital after the market closes on June 28. The regulator placed restrictions on dividend payments and share repurchases last year due to Covid-19. Early estimates indicate the six biggest U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., could return more than $140 billion to shareholders.

The number of Covid-19 cases in the UK rose to more than 16,000, the highest since February, mostly due to infection by the delta variant of the coronavirus. Meanwhile, the Bank of England voted to keep the key interest rate at 0.1% and to maintain the asset purchase program until the end of the year.

Ivermectin, a drug used to treat parasite infections in humans and livestock will be investigated as a possible treatment for Covid-19 in a large U.K. study at the University of Oxford. Its preliminary study has shown that the drug can reduce viral load, the amount of virus in the respiratory tract, and the length of symptoms in those with a mild infection, according to a statement from the university.

Bitcoin fell below $30,000 on Tuesday as China cracks down on crypto currencies. China summoned officials from its biggest banks to a meeting to reiterate a ban on cryptocurrency services. Bitcoin has lost more than 50% of its value from its mid-April high of almost $65,000.

It was a strong week for global equities with major indices posting decent weekly gains. In the U.S., the Dow Jones (+3.44%), S&P 500 (+2.74%) and the Nasdaq (+2.35%) all ended the week stronger. Similarly, in Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 (+0.91%) and FTSE 100 (+1.69%) posted positive returns, along with China’s Shanghai Composite Index (+2.34%), whilst Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+0.35%) was more muted.

Market Moves of the Week:

Two South African brothers have vanished with $3.6 billion of bitcoin in what could be the biggest crypto heist in history. Ameer Cajee and his younger brother, Raees Cajee, founded Africrypt in 2019. The siblings, along with 69,000 bitcoins worth roughly $4 billion (R56 billion) at their April peak, are nowhere to be found. The Financial Services Conduct Authority (FSCA) has reiterated that crypto assets are currently not regulated in terms of any financial sector law in South Africa and consequently the FSCA is not in a position to take any regulatory action.

South African headline inflation increased to 5.2% on a year-on-year basis in May, in line with market expectations. The increase was mainly driven by higher fuel prices. In April year-on-year inflation was recorded at 4.4%.

Residential vacancy levels in Cape Town increased to 28.8% in the second quarter, according to data from TPN. These unprecedented levels pushed up the province’s vacancy rate to 14.4%, the first time this has been in double digits.

The JSE All Share Index ended the week up +0.88%, with the resource sector (+5.09%) leading the market higher compared to the industrial (-1.78%) and financial (+0.66%) sectors that were mixed. By Friday close, the rand was trading at R14.15 to the U.S. Dollar, strengthening against all major developed currencies this week.

Chart of the Week:

The number of births in the United States fell by 4% in 2020, with 3.6 million babies born during the year. This is a decrease from about 3.75 million births in 2019 and 3.8 million births in 2018 and marks the largest annual decline in the number of births since 1973.Births had been falling by about 2% a year already, but the 2020 coronavirus pandemic brought a greater decline, as reported by the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics.

Whilst volatility is likely to continue amid current market uncertainty over the coronavirus pandemic, our message to all investors remains the same – stay calm in making decisions that are aligned with your long-term goals, not current market conditions. In any market environment, we strongly believe in the importance of having a portfolio that contains a variety of asset classes, including stocks and bonds, balanced in a way that reflects the investors risk tolerance and investment timeline.

As always, we appreciate your support and value your trust in LNKD Investment Managers..

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell or an indication of trading intent on behalf of any LNKD product. LNKD Investment Managers is an authorised financial services provider (FSP 51257).


Use of Third-Party Service Providers

LNKD Investment Managers (Pty) Ltd (“LNKD”), an authorized Category I and II Financial Services Provider, makes use of approved third-party service providers to support the delivery of discretionary investment management services. These may include, where applicable, portfolio administration, custody, execution, technology, data, and related support services.

All third-party arrangements are subject to appropriate due diligence, formal contractual agreements, and ongoing oversight. Notwithstanding any outsourcing or third-party involvement, LNKD retains full responsibility and accountability for the discretionary financial services rendered to clients.

Number
Product & Service Providers
1
Ardan
2
Capital International (CIG)
3
IDAD
4
Swissquote
5
Quilter
6
Glacier
7
INN8
8
Ninety One
9
Momentum Wealth International
10
Momentum Wealth
11
Baker Tilly (Previously Optimus)
12
Overseas Trust & Pension
13
RL360
14
STM Group Plc
15
Utmost
16
IVCM
17
Matco
18
PIMS

Anthony Palmer

Head of Investment Committee | CA (SA)
Anthony obtained his B Com and B Com Accountancy from the University of the Witwatersrand and qualified as a chartered accountant while doing his articles at Grant Thornton. Anthony spent eleven years working abroad as a managing director in structured credit sales and derivative marketing in London and Wall Street where he was global head of the alternative risk markets group for a leading banking institute. On returning to South Africa, Anthony ran his own business in the finance and venture capital industry before joining the Carrick Group where he is Managing Director of their family office (Wealth Succession) and head of the Carrick Investment Committee. Anthony is LNKD’s Managing Director and acts as Chairman of the Investment Committee.

Robert Enslin

B.Com (Honours), CFA

Rob obtained his B Com Honours degree from the University of Stellenbosch and is a CFA Charter Holder. He started his financial services career in 2008 at ValuGro Capital which was rated as the top small asset management company during the same year. Valugro Capital was subsequently purchased by the listed Efficient Group and the asset management arm was renamed Efficient Select in 2011. During his time at ValuGro Capital and Efficient Select, Rob Enslin was the portfolio manager of the Efficient Worldwide Flexible Fund which was the recipient of two Raging Bull Awards in 2011 and 2012 as the top performing fund (risk adjusted) in its category over a rolling 5-year period. In 2015, Rob was appointed as Head of Private Clients. In 2016, he departed to join StrategiQ Capital. At LNKD Rob is a portfolio manager, key individual, investment committee member and Director.

Luis Levy

B.Com, CFA

Luis obtained his B Com degree from the University of Cape Town and is a CFA Charter Holder. He started his financial services career in 1998 at Old Mutual and has gained valuable experience in fund management at several leading financial institutions. During his career he has also managed numerous mandates for retirement funds.  Luis joined Efficient Select, the asset management arm of the listed Efficient Group in 2010. He was appointed Managing Director of Efficient Select in 2011, where he was able to successfully grow the fund manager in the retail and institutional markets. In June 2015 he departed to setup StrategiQ Capital and at LNKD is a portfolio manager and member of the Investment Committee.